| Title |
Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, December 2016
|
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1614303114 |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Cyril Caminade, Joanne Turner, Soeren Metelmann, Jenny C. Hesson, Marcus S. C. Blagrove, Tom Solomon, Andrew P. Morse, Matthew Baylis |
| Abstract |
Zika, a mosquito-borne viral disease that emerged in South America in 2015, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO in February of 2016. We developed a climate-driven R0 mathematical model for the transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) that explicitly includes two key mosquito vector species: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus The model was parameterized and calibrated using the most up to date information from the available literature. It was then driven by observed gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for the period 1950-2015. We find that the transmission risk in South America in 2015 was the highest since 1950. This maximum is related to favoring temperature conditions that caused the simulated biting rates to be largest and mosquito mortality rates and extrinsic incubation periods to be smallest in 2015. This event followed the suspected introduction of ZIKV in Brazil in 2013. The ZIKV outbreak in Latin America has very likely been fueled by the 2015-2016 El Niño climate phenomenon affecting the region. The highest transmission risk globally is in South America and tropical countries where Ae. aegypti is abundant. Transmission risk is strongly seasonal in temperate regions where Ae. albopictus is present, with significant risk of ZIKV transmission in the southeastern states of the United States, in southern China, and to a lesser extent, over southern Europe during the boreal summer season. |
X Demographics
The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 33 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 16 | 48% |
| United Kingdom | 4 | 12% |
| Australia | 2 | 6% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 1 | 3% |
| Peru | 1 | 3% |
| Spain | 1 | 3% |
| Unknown | 8 | 24% |
Demographic breakdown
| Type | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Members of the public | 24 | 73% |
| Scientists | 5 | 15% |
| Practitioners (doctors, other healthcare professionals) | 2 | 6% |
| Science communicators (journalists, bloggers, editors) | 2 | 6% |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 307 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 3 | <1% |
| United States | 3 | <1% |
| Brazil | 2 | <1% |
| Unknown | 299 | 97% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Researcher | 57 | 19% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 49 | 16% |
| Student > Master | 42 | 14% |
| Student > Bachelor | 32 | 10% |
| Student > Doctoral Student | 18 | 6% |
| Other | 46 | 15% |
| Unknown | 63 | 21% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 62 | 20% |
| Medicine and Dentistry | 30 | 10% |
| Environmental Science | 26 | 8% |
| Social Sciences | 16 | 5% |
| Earth and Planetary Sciences | 15 | 5% |
| Other | 77 | 25% |
| Unknown | 81 | 26% |
Attention Score in Context
This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 457. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 20 October 2023.
All research outputs
#61,058
of 25,837,817 outputs
Outputs from Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
#1,526
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Outputs of similar age
#1,362
of 426,431 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
#29
of 902 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 25,837,817 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 99th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
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